Malaria can be prevented, diagnosed, and treated; however, every year, there are more than 200 million cases and 200.000 preventable deaths. Malaria remains a pressing public health concern in low- and middle-income countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. We describe how by means of mobile health applications, machine-learning-based adaptive interventions can strengthen malaria surveillance and treatment adherence, increase testing, measure provider skills and quality of care, improve public health by supporting front-line workers and patients (e.g., by capacity building and encouraging behavioral changes, like using bed nets), reduce test stockouts in pharmacies and clinics and informing public health for policy intervention.

Previous work on policy learning for Malaria control has often formulated the problem as an optimization problem assuming the objective function and the search space have a specific structure. The problem has been formulated as multi-armed bandits, contextual bandits and a Markov Decision Process in isolation. Furthermore, an emphasis is put on developing new algorithms specific to an instance of Malaria control, while ignoring a plethora of simpler and general algorithms in the literature. In this work, we formally study the formulation of Malaria control and present a comprehensive analysis of several formulations used in the literature. In addition, we implement and analyze several reinforcement learning algorithms in all formulations and compare them to black box optimization. In contrast to previous work, our results show that simple algorithms based on Upper Confidence Bounds are sufficient for learning good Malaria policies, and tend to outperform their more advanced counterparts on the malaria OpenAI Gym environment.

Sequential decision-making under cost-sensitive tasks is prohibitively daunting, especially for the problem that has a significant impact on people's daily lives, such as malaria control, treatment recommendation. The main challenge faced by policymakers is to learn a policy from scratch by interacting with a complex environment in a few trials. This work introduces a practical, data-efficient policy learning method, named Variance-Bonus Monte Carlo Tree Search~(VB-MCTS), which can copy with very little data and facilitate learning from scratch in only a few trials. Specifically, the solution is a model-based reinforcement learning method. To avoid model bias, we apply Gaussian Process~(GP) regression to estimate the transitions explicitly. With the GP world model, we propose a variance-bonus reward to measure the uncertainty about the world. Adding the reward to the planning with MCTS can result in more efficient and effective exploration. Furthermore, the derived polynomial sample complexity indicates that VB-MCTS is sample efficient. Finally, outstanding performance on a competitive world-level RL competition and extensive experimental results verify its advantage over the state-of-the-art on the challenging malaria control task.